2026年第一季度，Backblaze的硬盘统计报告新鲜出炉。这次他们盯了341263块硬盘，算下来年化故障率是1.24%，而生命周期故障率也是1.39%。这两个数字，放在一起看还挺有意思的。
先解释一下“年化故障率”这个概念。简单说，就是把某个时间段内的硬盘故障情况，折算成一个全年度的比例，这样不同季度、不同型号之间才能公平地比较。
年化故障率报告
MFG型号规格 (TB)磁盘数量A vg. Age (Months)Drive Days磁盘故障AFR (%)
SeagateST14000NM0138141,25162.6111,709154.9
SeagateST10000NM00861098198.386,667114.63
SeagateST12000NM00071298375.887,389114.59
HGSTHUH721212ALN604129,78080.9870,252953.98
SeagateST16000NM000J161291710,11713.61
SeagateST24000NM002H249,6059.3820,090743.29
WDCWUH721816ALE6L0162,99450.4267,868243.27
SeagateST12000NM00081218,65070.71,664,5581292.83
HGSTHUH721212ALE6041213,27756.51,183,774862.65
ToshibaMG08ACA16TEY164,88550.5435,063262.18
ToshibaMG07ACA14TEY1499639.888,60252.06
SeagateST8000NM000A824737.921,55211.69
SeagateST8000DM00288,910112.3639,473251.43
ToshibaMG08ACA16TE166,26448.9553,878211.38
HGSTHUH721212ALE600122,60875.4234,35081.25
SeagateST8000NM0055813,232101.51,176,619391.21
ToshibaMG08ACA16TA1640,03630.73,548,2501021.05
ToshibaMG07ACA14TA1437,26364.13,343,724941.03
SeagateST12000NM001G1213,21660.71,185,545331.02
ToshibaMG09ACA16TE165066.636,98810.99
SeagateST14000NM000J1443316.237,25810.98
WDCWUH721816ALE6L41626,80134.62,402,732640.97
ToshibaMG10ACA20TE2020,45111.61,665,263420.92
SeagateST14000NM001G1410,51960.3944,400210.81
WDCWUH722626ALE6L4263,6042.5182,47140.8
SeagateST16000NM001G1634,72941.23,098,105440.52
WDCWUH722222ALE6L42245,63816.13,992,942420.38
SeagateST12000NM000J121,0871996,88710.38
WDCWUH721414ALE6L4148,64061.3776,55770.33
ToshibaMG11ACA24TE247,2034495,38730.22
SeagateST16000NM002J1646638.841,93100
HGSTHUH728080ALE60081,0269386,92100
HGSTHMS5C4040BLE6404186106.115,85800
Totals
30,203,18010301.24
再来看“生命周期故障率”。这个指标就不局限于单个季度了，它统计的是这款硬盘从投入使用以来，在一个更长时间窗口里累计的故障情况。如果你想了解某款型号的长期稳定性，这个数据就很有参考价值，尤其是在企业采购、容量规划，或者决定什么时候该替换设备的时候。
生命周期故障率报告
MFG型号规格 (TB)磁盘数量A vg. Age (Months)Drive Days磁盘故障率AFR (%)
HGSTHMS5C4040BLE6404186106.115,85800
HGSTHUH728080ALE60081,0269386,92100
HGSTHUH721212ALE600122,60875.4234,35081.25
HGSTHUH721212ALE6041213,27756.51,183,774862.65
HGSTHUH721212ALN604129,78080.9870,252953.98
SeagateST8000DM00288,910112.3639,473251.43
SeagateST8000NM000A824737.921,55211.69
SeagateST8000NM0055813,232101.51,176,619391.21
SeagateST10000NM00861098198.386,667114.63
SeagateST12000NM00071298375.887,389114.59
SeagateST12000NM00081218,65070.71,664,5581292.83
SeagateST12000NM000J121,0871996,88710.38
SeagateST12000NM001G1213,21660.71,185,545331.02
SeagateST14000NM000J1443316.237,25810.98
SeagateST14000NM001G1410,51960.3944,400210.81
SeagateST14000NM0138141,25162.6111,709154.9
SeagateST16000NM000J161291710,11713.61
SeagateST16000NM001G1634,72941.23,098,105440.52
SeagateST16000NM002J1646638.841,93100
SeagateST24000NM002H249,6059.3820,090743.29
ToshibaMG07ACA14TA1437,26364.13,343,724941.03
ToshibaMG07ACA14TEY1499639.888,60252.06
ToshibaMG08ACA16TA1640,03630.73,548,2501021.05
ToshibaMG08ACA16TE166,26448.9553,878211.38
ToshibaMG08ACA16TEY164,88550.5435,063262.18
ToshibaMG09ACA16TE165066.636,98810.99
ToshibaMG10ACA20TE2020,45111.61,665,263420.92
ToshibaMG11ACA24TE247,2034495,38730.22
WDCWUH721414ALE6L4148,64061.3776,55770.33
WDCWUH721816ALE6L0162,99450.4267,868243.27
WDCWUH721816ALE6L41626,80134.62,402,732640.97
WDCWUH722222ALE6L42245,63816.13,992,942420.38
WDCWUH722626ALE6L4263,6042.5182,47140.8
Totals
30,203,18010301.24
这份报告的数据截止到2026年3月31日。Backblaze总共监控了345662块硬盘，但剔除了3907块启动盘和492块不符合条件的，最终纳入分析的硬盘数量是341263块。
有意思的是，这个季度没有新增任何硬盘型号。而在过去8个季度里，有6个季度都出现过新面孔。另外，公司上一季度部署了10220块硬盘，其中9404块容量都超过了20TB，这个趋势相当明显。
最后，本季度有三款型号实现了零故障，值得点赞：
HGST 的 HMS5C4040BLE640（4TB）
HGST 的 HUH728080ALE600（8TB）
希捷的 ST16000NM002J（16TB）
参考
